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Recency Beats Reputation in Deal Origination

Recency in deal origination beats track record. The operator who checked in last week gets the broker's call. The one silent for 90 days does not.

By Brett Kaufman. 8 years using relationships to build sales pipelines, from political fundraising to a 7 figure business to running matchmaking for two communities. Over 1,000 introductions facilitated.

In deal origination, recency beats reputation. When a broker gets a mandate, he calls the buyers he heard from lately, not the ones with the best track record. If your last real touch was 90 days ago, you are not on the list.

You built the track record. You have the wins, the references, the capital. And the broker still did not call you.

Not because you are unqualified. Because the last time he heard from you was three months ago, and when the mandate landed on his desk, you were not the name in his head. Someone else was. Someone who texted him about a deal in his sector two weeks earlier, grabbed a quick call last month, and forwarded a news article the week before that.

The broker did not weigh track records. He did not compare fund sizes. He reached for the short list of operators he had been talking to recently, and you were not on it.

That is how proprietary deal flow actually works.

I watched this happen before I built anything

I have made over 1,000 introductions between deal makers, operators and investors. The pattern I saw over and over was not bad operators. It was good ones disappearing.

They met the right people. They had real conversations. Then they went under for six months, buried in diligence or a capital raise. By the time they came back up, someone else had the relationship.

Nobody chose that outcome. It just happened, quietly, to people who were better on paper than the ones who got the call.

The short list problem

Intermediaries are not running filters when they get a mandate. They are not opening a spreadsheet of every qualified buyer they have ever met. They are thinking of a handful of people they have heard from recently who might fit. That list is built from memory, and memory is short.

This is not a flaw in their process. It is rational. When a seller wants a quiet process, speed and confidentiality matter. The broker calls people he trusts and has spoken to recently. The mechanism is recency.

Your reputation gets you on the list the first time. Recency keeps you on it.

The operator who built a strong reputation and then went silent for 90 days loses to the operator with a shorter track record who sent a useful note last week. Not because the broker is careless. Because the short list is built from recent memory, and recent memory does not go back 90 days.

What 90 days of silence does

Here is what happens when you go heads down on a deal.

Month one: you have a few active conversations with intermediaries and close out a couple of loose threads. People know you are in diligence.

Month two: you are focused. The calls you meant to make stay on a list. You know you should reach out, but the deal takes everything.

Month three: you surface for air and realize you have not spoken to half the people who could send you a deal. You make a few calls to catch up. Some go well. But you missed whatever was moving during that window.

The deals that moved in those 90 days went to operators who were visible. Not better operators. Visible ones.

The recency gap is structural, not a discipline problem. While you are running a deal, your relationship upkeep drops to zero. That is the right trade in the short term. The cost is that your proprietary deal flow dries up exactly when you are most able to act on a new one.

Why it compounds

This is illustrative math, not a promise.

Say you have 40 intermediary relationships: brokers, M&A bankers, M&A lawyers, CPAs, family office principals. Say each sees one relevant off market opportunity a year. If you stay top of mind with 30 of them, you hear about 30 opportunities before they go wide.

Go silent with half of them during a long cycle. Now you hear about 15. Over two or three acquisition cycles, the gap between the operator who keeps recency and the one who does not is not a few deals. It is the whole shape of the pipeline.

The operators with the most proprietary deal flow are rarely the ones with the best reputations. They are the ones with a system that keeps them visible with the right people even when they are deep in an acquisition.

What recency actually requires

Staying top of mind with 40 intermediaries during a long deal cycle is not a willpower problem. You cannot rely on discipline that the deal you are running already spent.

What works is a system that does the remembering for you. Here is how I would run it.

A real reason every time. A note tied to something that happened in their world is the baseline. Not “checking in” with no context. A deal they closed, a shift in their sector, a question about what they are seeing. Short enough to send from your phone in two minutes.

An early warning. My rule of thumb: know at 45 days, not at 90. At 90, you already missed whatever was moving.

The names you forgot you had. Your next deal is not always attached to the names you think about most. It might be a broker you met at a conference two years ago who covers a sector you are moving into. Your contacts app sorts alphabetically. That name sits under a letter you will never think to open.

The invisible loss

The deals you lose to a recency failure are the most expensive kind.

They are off market. No competitive process. No bid you could have sharpened. The seller talked to two or three buyers directly because the intermediary made the introduction. No auction, no market clearing price. Clean, fast, proprietary.

Those are the deals that define the best operators’ track records. And they go to whoever the intermediary thought of first. That decision is made in seconds, and it is decided by who showed up recently.

Your reputation earned you a seat at the table. Recency decides whether you are still sitting there when it matters.

Key takeaways

  • Intermediaries build short lists from recent memory, not from ranked qualifications.
  • Recency beats reputation in deciding who gets called on a new mandate.
  • 90 days of silence can drop you off the short list even with a strong track record.
  • Proprietary deal flow needs a system that keeps you visible during long cycles, not just discipline.
  • Deals lost to silence are off market deals that never show up in your pipeline as a loss.

What I built to fix it

FRONT OF MIND is the system I wanted for every operator I watched go quiet. It opens on your 10 minutes for today. Each person comes with one line saying why today: they posted, their company was in the news, a deal in your pipeline has been quiet 7 days, they are going cold. Each one has a draft written like a text, 40 words max. Nothing sends without your tap, and it learns from your edits.

Reputation will not get you this week’s call. Recency will. Your first 25 contacts are free.

For more on why silence is the main reason deals disappear, read You Didn’t Lose That Deal on Price. You Lost It to Silence.

If FRONT OF MIND doesn’t surface people in your network worth reaching out to within 72 hours, we’ll refund you. No questions asked. See how it works

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